Go or no go?

Fritz er en god mann for værobservasjoner!

14.1.2012 10:44:02

Hi Svenning,

Below the calculation for a departure at 12 utc today; as you can see the little trough on sunday is more difficult to escape. You should be south of 58°S to escape the 30 kts wind.

The front on monday is still scheduled at 12 utc, behind the front a strong windfield moves gently south and from tuesday 12 utc 30 kts wind  near Deception and Melchior Island, with snow.

This looks a little better compared to yesterdays 12 utc run but nevertheless. So better wait for the next window. And now finally some good news, this next window keeps looking more and more promising.

On wednesday 18 jan wind goes from NW 30 kts to W 25 kts and its stay calm the next few days at least until saturday. So that window looks promising.

I'll keep you informed.
Greetz
Fritz

Thank you Fritz,
We like the good news. We are now cruising the Beagle canal, that is absolutely fantastic. But we are ready to return to Puerto Williams any time for the trip south. It is therefore important for us to establish departure time.Is it possible already on Wedensday, or is Thursdah best bet?  We can also find a good harbour just north of Cape Horn and wait there until the wind is right, that will save us half a day.
Regards,
Svenning

13.1.2012 20:13:07

Hi Svenning,

NO GO!!!!!!!

Those 40 kts are linked to the front that reach the Drake yesterday and is the reason you skipped the precvoius window. So that was a good call!!!

The new 12 utc run also gives 35 kts on sunday on that little trough. the area with 35 kts is between Cape Horn and 57.5°S. So to have a margin you should be able to reach 58°S on Sunday 15 jan 12 utc. If not, better to wait for the next window.

The biggest issue is the situation on tuesday and wednesday near the Antarctic Peninsula. The front with arrives on manday generates a secondary low wich creates a little storm near the antarctic penninsula on tuesday and wednesday. With snow and wind up to 30-35 kts is not a good situation to reach the islands over thers.

Better to wait the next run off the models tomorrow an decide.
Greetz,
Fritz