Først motvind, senere mer romt

Her er det siste fra værmannen:

Hi Svenning,
no rest for the wicked! I have been looking for answers for that prevailing SSW-see below. Possibly also a reason is that my estimated positions were a bit to far South, which accumulated to this result. I think it is good idea to send your position and your report around 7 utc, if possible of course-than in can use that information to make my forecast from. The best forecast is always best on a good observation! ;-)
Take care and wish everyone the best from me.

Marc

Weather Forecast Anne Mari -31 August- day 19
Yes, i was a bit surprised this morning when i saw the wind directions at your latitude. I have been looking for answers to give an explanation for this phenomenon and i think i know th reason why this SSW 'ly plus rain remains so long present at your latitude.
I have been taling about the deepening topical storm to the North of your location a few days ago.In the meantime that feature has grown to a tropical cyclone and the behaviour of a tropical cyclone is very hard to catch for the model. So that TC was expected to track to the NW, towards the East coast of the States but it didn't. It remained a little longer on the same latitude than expected and headed a bit more South as well. That is why at your latitude the air is still very moist and unstable. Also the prevailing SSW'ly is due to that hesitating TC.
As a note i want to say that with this experience in the back of our mind we must say that the confidence of the forecast below is also on the low side. Treat it as a guide line, but don't trust it completely. I will let you know when the confidence  is up again.

Day 1: 1 Sep:
Expected track: from 3.0/-29.0 to 1.0/-30.0
Weather: very cloudy with rain/showers-hardly improving today, slightly improving tonight.
Wind: 190-210°/14-18kt slowly becoming 180-200/10-15kt
Swell-Waves: from S- significant height: 2mr increasing to 2.5mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy: still heading pretty close to the wind-no real changes during the day. During the night the wind should back a little to 160-180 by the morning. All depending on your latitude of course.

Day 2: 2 Sep:
Expected track: from 1.0/-30.0 to -1.0/-31.0
Weather: still unstable but better than the day before: a few sunny spells but also cloudy periods with rain/showers.
Wind: 160-180/10-15kt gradually becoming 150-170/8-13kt
Swell-Waves: from S average 2-2.5mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy: slowly backing of the wind will allow to get closer to the 200-210 heading.

Day 3: 3 Sep:
Expected track: from -1.0/-31.0    to -3.0/-32.0
Weather: sunny spells but still a lot of low clouds with probably some slight rain or isolated shower-improving
Wind: 130-150/12-16kt, becoming 140-160/16-20kt
Swell-Waves: from SSE, significant height: 2.5mr gradually backing to SE.
Remarks/warnings/strategy:

Day 4: 4 Sep:
Expected track: from -3.0/-32.0 to -5.0/-33.0
Weather: fair/few isolated showers
Wind: 140-160/16-20kt - no significant change
Swell-Waves: from SE - 2.5mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy:

Further Outlook
Steady SE'lies prevail.

Remark:
signficant wave height: is the average height of 1/3 of the highest waves