fredag 26. august 2011

Weather Forecast Anne Mari -26 August- day 14

General situation
the next ten degrees will probably be not the nicest ones of this trip. You enter the thermal equator, with at this time of the year quite a lot convective activity/squall lines, which means showery and thundery outbreaks are always possible. Be careful because every squall line has his own significant wind conditions (wind shifts and wind gusts). Be attentive at every moment!

Day 1: 26 Aug:
Expected track: from 14.9/-23.5 to 12.5/-23.6
Weather: very cloudy with showery and possibly thundery outbreaks. During thunderstorms possibly gusts; In between a gew sunny spells.
Wind: 230-250°/6-10kt after 18utc becoming 260-280/8-12kt
Swell-Waves: from S, significant height: 2-2.5mr increasing to 2.5-3mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy:  with the SW'ly wind, try to go as South as possible. When the wind starts shifting to the W to WNW, go along with it so you can go in a S to SSW'ly direction.

Day 2: 27 Aug:
Expected track: from 12.5/-23.6 to 10.0/-25.0
Weather: similar as previous day: unstable with showers and thun. A few sunny spells are possible.
Wind: 270-290/8-12kt after 12/15utc becoming 300-320/10-15kt
Swell-Waves: from South around 3mr, no significant change
Remarks/warnings/strategy: probably the best day, try to cover as much distance as possible.

Day 3: 28 Aug:
Expected track: from 10.0/-25.0 to 07.5/-26.8
Weather: possibly some stronger showery/thundery activity. Depends on exact position.
Wind: 310-330/10-16kt after 15utc becoming 290-310/12-18kt
Swell-Waves: from South, significant height: 2.5-3mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy: wind will back under influence of the approaching low pressure system: position at 18utc: N10/W22.3

Day 4: 29 Aug:
Expected track: from 07.5/-26.8 to 05.0/-27.8
Weather: showers and thundery outbreaks, heavy at times-heavy gusts
Wind: 270-290/15-20kt temporarily increasing to 230-250/20-24kt
Swell-Waves: from S 2.5-3mr
Remarks/warnings/strategy: strong wind and heavy weather, at this position at this time, if more to South than conditions will be better.

Further Outlook (use carefully as confidence on such a long term is very low)
heading further South wind turns gradually to S, later to SE (trade winds on Southern hemisphere)

Remark:
signficant wave height: is the average height of 1/3 of the heighest waves

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